Evolving Solutions: Human Development/Data Science
Miriam Burch
DATA 150: Data Science for Human Development
Professor Brewer
6 December 2021
Word Count: 1928
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN CATALONIA, SPAIN
Catalonia, the northeastern most region of Spain, is an ideal part of the world to study climate change because of its diverse geography including sea, coastline, mountains, rivers, cropland, and urban and rural areas. This region has experienced temperature increases, drying climates, shortage of rainfall and sea temperature and sea level rises, especially in the summer months, all of which have been occurring at an accelerating rate in recent decades. Barcelona, the capital of Catalonia, has undergone some of the worst impacts of climate change such as temperature rises, a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in droughts, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Of these, coastal erosion has had the greatest impact due to its negative effects on tourism and property values along the coastline, as well as the associated annual cost of rebuilding beaches. Two data science methodologies in particular address Barcelona’s coastal erosion problems: (i) oceanographic and meteorological observations at a coastal station in Catalonia reinforced by NASA satellite readings to precisely measure sea level and sea temperature rise over multiple decades; and (ii) coastal observations over a range of meteo-oceanographic and socio-economic pressures, including littoral drift and population density, to arrive at a framework to address coastal erosion in and around Barcelona. While these methodologies can together explain much of the coastal erosion occurring along the Catalan coastline, there is a need to further integrate long-term data science sources and methods for coastal precipitation (or lack thereof), economic development, and the effects of tourism stemming from Barcelona’s cruise ship ports and airport.
Following an extensive review of the literature on climate change in Catalonia, Spain, a research gap exists for the integration of long-term data science sources and methods for the causes, effects, and solutions to coastal erosion. Research is needed to analyze coastal precipitation, economic development, and tourism to determine how these factors, taken together, impact coastal erosion over time. This research proposal covers a period of three years with an anticipated cost of EUR 100,000 broken down as follows: EUR 25,000 to acquire and install 22 weather stations; EUR 20,000 to build a sample beach dune; EUR 50,000 to hire a research associate responsible for monitoring the weather stations and the condition of the beach dune, as well as implementing education and training programs; and EUR 5,000 to kick start a limited advertising campaign to educate the public on beach erosion. Details of the research proposal are set out below.
Inland precipitation can be a major mitigating factor against coastal erosion. During heavy rainfalls, monitoring the flow of sand from inland areas to the beach is essential to understand the sand transport mechanism and to what extent that mitigates coastal erosion. To better understand this mechanism, we will monitor inland precipitation and set up a series of 22 micro weather stations along the coast of Catalonia. One of the 22 sites, Coma Ruga, will be designated the “master site” where a sample beach dune will be constructed (more on that below). The Coma Ruga weather station will be located one kilometer inland from the coast toward the mountains. The novel hypothesis for this leg of the research is that if there is enough inland rainfall the beach will be replenished, but if there is little to no inland rainfall then the beach will continue to erode as no sand is being transported to replenish it. This data will need to be integrated into a predictive model to calculate, for example, the volume of sand and other sediment transported toward the beach for every 1 cm of rainfall. Using rainfall data from prior years and modelling sand/sediment transport we can then forecast future beach erosion. Furthermore, our model will help isolate to what extent total yearly rainfall impacts coastal replenishment or if there is another cause preventing coastal replenishment.
Temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration (which measures how much evaporation occurs due to temperature, taking into account any rainfall) are three additional parameters that will be measured at the weather stations and fed into the predictive model. As inland coastal areas tend to be humid, we postulate that small rainstorms, especially if occurring within hours or days of each other, may be enough to trigger the flow of sand transport to the beach. The project’s research associate will physically monitor the weather stations and actively measure sediment flow towards the direction of the beach. Once the weather stations have been established, some of the parameters—temperature, humidity, evapotranspiration and rainfall—will be monitored and collected remotely. In terms of placement, one weather station will be installed at the midpoint of each of the 22 littoral cells (i.e. the stretches between ports) that run along Catalonia’s coastline, approximately one kilometer inland from that midpoint towards the mountains/hills. In addition to remotely monitoring the weather stations and measuring sand transport, the research associate will also measure for beach erosion or beach accumulation within each littoral cell. That data will then help complete the sand transport model to assess the extent to which rainfall, temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration mitigate beach erosion.
Another element to integrate within this coastal erosion research is economic development. Monitoring what is built along the beach as well as immediately inland, and to what extent that impacts coastal erosion, will help us understand the overall sand transport mechanism. Key to that understanding are the municipalities, which are responsible for issuing building permits. Nearly every littoral cell within Catalonia has its own town hall. These town halls are called “Ajuntaments,” typically located inland from the beach, not directly on the beach, as coastal areas of Spain were virtually undeveloped until the 1950s. This leads one to speculate whether Catalonia’s coastal Ajuntaments really grasp what is occurring on their beaches, including what effects the issuance of building permits—whether for parking lots, apartment complexes, roads, hotels, or other structures that prevent the movement of inland sediment toward the beach—have on the sand transport mechanism. If an Ajuntament grants a permit to build a subdivision and its associated roads, the sand beneath that concrete and asphalt is forever trapped, unable to make its way to replenish nearby beaches. This is an issue that has not been researched and may be a major contributing factor to coastal erosion. In fact, in Coma Ruga, this has already begun and the transport mechanism for sand and sediment has been drastically interrupted because of newly constructed supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl, just behind the beach near the midpoint of the littoral cell. Therefore, this leg of the proposal will involve the research associate carrying out an in-depth education program for employees working in the coastal Ajuntaments who issue building permits for the construction of such infrastructure, helping them to understand how their work impacts local beach erosion.
In addition to education and training seminars at the local level, employees in Catalonia’s “Generalitat” (the provincial town hall of Catalonia) will also need training. This leg of the proposal will also require the Ajuntament of Coma Ruga, as the master site, to construct an experimental dune, 1.5-meters high and approximately one kilometer long, within the Coma Ruga littoral cell (the dune is a proposal taken from the literature review to combat beach erosion). The dune will be monitored by the research associate in conjunction with the Ajuntament. If the experimental dune is effective at combating erosion, the research associate will work with the Generalitat and each of the other 21 Ajuntaments to construct, at a later stage, similar dunes within each littoral cell along the coast. Funding for the construction of these dunes would likely be provided by the Generalitat and the respective Ajuntaments. The research associate would also be responsible for establishing a GoFundMe page for each littoral cell to help offset the cost of constructing and maintaining their respective dunes. In my area this page will be called “Coma Ruga Dune Builders,” specifically targeting the dune being built from the port of Roda de Bará to Coma Ruga.
The third and final point to integrate within this coastal erosion research is tourism. In Catalonia, each Ajuntament has an extensive network of public works employees who are responsible for maintaining its beach, including collecting trash and raking the beach with a tractor each night to make it presentable for beach goers the following day. Over time, raking the beach disturbs its natural barriers and contours, likely contributing to erosion. Therefore, our project’s research associate will also educate and consult with each Ajuntament’s public works officials to establish “best practices” to prevent beach erosion while maintaining high standards of cleanliness and public safety. Through a targeted advertising campaign during the summer months, these practices will include asking locals and tourists to repair beach damage (e.g. holes dug to build sandcastles, insert umbrellas, etc.) as well as training lifeguards and police (who routinely walk the beach) to help with implementation. In cooperation with the Generalitat, these practices will be conveyed to the general public in a limited advertising campaign, initially funded by our research but later handed over to the Generalitat.
Suggestions regarding how the Generalitat can continue to pay for the advertising campaign (as well as pay for continued maintenance of the dune and the education and training programs) include implementing: (i) a “use tax” every time one enters the beach. This would be difficult to regulate because beaches are currently free and open to the public in Spain; (ii) a beach erosion tax on hotel owners, restaurant owners and marinas (including those who own a boat and have it docked at the port); and (iii) higher property taxes on those who own properties along the coast. Ultimately, some of these costs will get passed on to tourists because they will be added to the total charge of any item, hotel room, meal, etc. Taxes on cruise ship owners could also be levied as Barcelona is the largest and busiest cruise ship port in Europe.
Integrating long-term data science sources and methods for coastal precipitation/sand transport, economic development and tourism over a three-year period would fill a gap in current research regarding coastal erosion. While this research will not solve coastal erosion by itself, it will add to our body of knowledge regarding cause and effect, especially in terms of how—and to what extent—the sand transport mechanism helps mitigate beach erosion within a littoral cell. This question is difficult to answer as we know from a review of the literature that the north-south current along Spain’s Mediterranean coastline is a major contributor to sand replenishment. However, if proven to be true, our novel hypothesis—that excessive economic development exacerbated by tourism impedes sand transport and is therefore also a major cause of coastal erosion—will help government officials assemble an integrated approach to coastal management. Officials can then address questions of where and how to allocate resources to prevent, mitigate, and overcome erosion. Also taken from prior research is the theory that a 1.5-meter dune will prevent erosion within a littoral cell. By testing that hypothesis in this research, if proven true the dune can be implemented along the entire coastline to combat erosion within each of the other 21 littoral cells. Finally, while lobbying measures are beyond the scope of this research proposal, new laws restricting building permits that impact coastal erosion may be required. Those laws may also require Ajuntaments to eliminate infrastructure—roads, buildings, drainage systems or marinas—that directly and substantially impede sand transport that contributes to coastal erosion.