Evolving Solutions: Human Development/Data Science
Miriam Burch
DATA 150: Data Science for Human Development
Professor Brewer
20 October 2021
Word Count: 4,725
Over the past decade, technology has evolved rapidly. The techniques of data science, from machine learning, artificial intelligence and geotargeting to data visualization have significantly helped analyze regions most impacted by climate change. By studying the effects and patterns of the change via the use of various methodologies, scientific methods, datasets and predictive analytics models, data scientists have helped our human development process. Data scientists are continuously exploring and finding new ways to cope with climate change issues as they assimilate and compare data in order to predict future trends. With these advancements, climate change is now viewed as a more complex human development process and adaptive solutions can be developed to help solve problems by locating and pinpointing areas in which changes need to be made that will impact climate targets.
Catalonia, the northeastern most region of Spain, is an ideal part of the world to study climate change because of its diverse geography including sea, coastline, mountains, rivers, cropland, and urban and rural areas. This region has experienced temperature increases, drying climates, shortage of rainfall and sea temperature and sea level rises, especially in the summer months, all of which have been occurring at an accelerating rate in recent decades. In particular, Barcelona, the capital of Catalonia, has undergone some of the worst impacts of climate change such as temperature rises, a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in droughts and heatwaves. This literature review focuses on three main areas within Catalonia that can easily be compared to other regions in the world: (i) inland water resources; (ii) fires and anthropogenic warming; and (iii) oceanographic and coastal areas. According to Amartya Sen, “The human being is an engine of change. It is the enhancement of freedoms that allow people to lead lives that they have reason to live.” Expanding people’s choices gives them more freedom and opportunities to live a life they truly value. Sen believes that freedom is the essence of human development and the climate change issues in the region of Catalonia are directly related to his definition because there’s a restriction of freedom to consume more water, to move (in terms of there being a forest fire near your home), to grow crops, and finally to even live along the Mediterranean coast. Additionally, there’s also a restriction on economic freedom, as the impacts of climate change restrict economic development, meaning that one can’t build along the coast due to sea levels rising or erosion. These effects also restrict the movement of tourism and decrease the fishing population, limiting the number of fish caught and preventing overfishing to compensate for climate change. Through a critical analysis of the literature relating to climate change in three main areas of Catalonia, we will identify which social, economic and environmental data sets and data science methods can best inform policy decisions to help find solutions within this complex adaptive system.
A. REGIONAL TRENDS
Humanity is currently facing the most important environmental threat in history: global climate change. One of the articles previously reviewed in the annotated bibliography, Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia, Spain, is a case study that describes the three medium-sized study catchments, Fluvià, Tordera and Siurana all located within northeastern Spain. Temperature and precipitation patterns are directly impacted by climate change and these trends thereby impact the availability of water and streamflows locally. Population growth and land-use changes are projected to increase water consumption. In fact, according to this article, the Mediterranean region is recognized as being among the most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Forecasts indicate that the Mediterranean area will see less precipitation, especially during the warmest months of the year, and a higher mean and maximal temperature during that time. Recent trends in the Mediterranean show a warming trend higher than global temperature increases of nearly one degree Celsius over the last century and a change in seasonal rainfall patterns. According to recent climate models, the region will experience a drier, warmer climate by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the region is experiencing significant changes in land cover that are disturbing its water sources, mostly due to an increase in vegetation (forests and shrublands), irrigation coverage and human needs for water. Because of this, over the forthcoming decades, water availability is expected to decrease significantly. Drought has occurred more frequently in the Mediterranean since 1970, which has caused greater economic damage over the last two decades, as demonstrated by observational series. According to these studies, annual precipitation in the region varies statistically non-significantly from year to year, and spring precipitation decreases significantly. As a result, there has been a general decrease in streamflows because of these processes and a higher occurrence of water shortages associated with urbanization and tourism in Catalonia. According to this article, “The study has three main objectives, focused on its geographic area: (i) to develop a methodology for evaluating climate change effects on modeled water resources at catchment level; (ii) to evaluate how climate projections will affect streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET); and (iii) to analyze whether the expected reduction of streamflow will compromise the maintenance of ecological streamflows.” (1)
The environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research in this article because climate change is affecting the water resources available in the Mediterranean Basin. Based on the results of the study, water managers can identify major impacts of climate change on water resources at the regional and local levels. In order to face climate change threats, this impact identification and quantification is vital and in order to come up with a solution, the analyses proven in this article need to be incorporated into adaptive management policies along the Mediterranean coast. In terms of geospatial datasets, three catchments are selected in Catalonia (Fluvià, Tordera, and Siurana) and they are graphed in location and mean annual precipitation (in mm) for the 1951-2000 period. A SWAT model was used to evaluate water resources based on climate, topography, land use, and soil type. This model was then calibrated and validated at a daily time step with historical streamflow, reservoir levels, and reservoir management information in the Siurana catchment every three years over a period starting in 1984 and ending in 2008. The hydrological cycle is being used as a scientific method in the three catchments, each under different climate change scenarios. According to the article, “The process includes three main steps: (i) setting-up the hydrological model for the historical period (1984–2008) with observed streamflow and climate data; (ii) generating climate projections based on the dynamic downscaling performed by the SMC, starting from the atmosphere-ocean coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM for A2 (medium-high greenhouse gas emissions) and B1 (medium-low emissions) IPCC scenarios; and (iii) incorporating climate scenarios into the hydrological model to evaluate streamflow and evapotranspiration changes in the short term (2006–2030) and long term (2076–2100).” (1) The pattern investigated is the precipitation and temperature within each watershed. Lastly, how climate change is affecting the availability of water in the Mediterranean region is the main scientific question in this article, which leads us to an analysis of the practical effects of water availability within Catalonia and what measures are being taken to address these.
B. PRACTICAL EFFECTS AND SOLUTIONS
A new article researched for this Literature Review is A Decade After Barcelona’s Water Emergency, Drought Still Stalks Spain, which relates to the practical effects of the lack of water resources along the Mediterranean Coast. This article mentions how ten years ago, Barcelona nearly ran out of water and in 2008, “Reservoirs dipped so low that the Mediterranean city (Barcelona) was forced to import drinking water from France.” (2) This water shortage became Spain’s driest year on record. Summers in Spain are becoming hotter and drier and winters are becoming less harsh. In 2017, Spain experienced one of the lowest precipitation rates since the drought in 2008. Part of the problem is that “Barcelona’s water system is old and dysfunctional.” (2) In fact, one system even lost 800,000 liters of water each day. To confront these issues, “Earlier this year, the city established a drought protocol to help fight water shortages more effectively.” (2) This system includes four levels of drought: pre-alert, alert, exceptionality, and emergency. However, “Eloi Badia, the Councillor for Presidency, Water, and Energy states that Barcelona does not expect to reach the exceptionality or emergency stages of the protocol.” (2) As of now, this has remained true as Spain has seen favorable rainfall in recent years. Even the “crop production is expected to surpass the low yields of 2017.” (2) This raises the question, where will the water come from? “In 2001, the government proposed to pipe water from the Ebro River, in the north of Spain, to the country’s dry southeastern region.” (2) This consisted of constructing 110 dams along the Ebro. Nonetheless, farmers weren’t in agreement with this plan, as they worried it would damage livelihoods and cause environmental damages. This led to a massive demonstration in Madrid in March 2001 that involved 120,000 protesters. (2) Eventually, the pipeline construction began but then weakened and later stopped. Going back a few years more for additional context, in 2005 Spain saw the worst drought since 1945. Water was so limited that 95% of towns and cities in the region of Catalonia placed water restrictions. Eventually, when the drought in 2008 hit, Spain had still not recovered its reservoir levels from the 2005 drought. The water emergency in 2008 caused a lot of chaos in Catalonia. The government announced that Barcelona would run out of water by October and because of this “hosepipe bans were enacted, public fountains were drained, and the city’s 1.6 million residents were urged to conserve water.” (2) Two major water supply schemes were put forward as well: (i) Catalonia arranged shipments of water from Tarragona and (ii) an emergency pipeline was built to transfer water from the mouth of the Ebro to Barcelona. However, this caused an issue for many other regions as they accused the central government of favoring Catalonia. Even rice farmers along the Ebro were unable to stop irrigating mid-season, which was necessary to do before laying down the pipeline. “Despite the controversy, the first shipload of water from Tarragona arrived in Barcelona on May 14, 2008, carrying 23 million liters of drinking water (enough to supply 180,000 people for one day).” (2) At this time, Catalonia had also made a deal with France to transport shipments of water. As these measures began and water was being imported to the city, Barcelona’s water situation started improving by precipitation. Heavy rainfall “boosted Catalonia’s reservoir levels to 30% (still below average, but safely above crisis levels)” and it was enough to stabilize the city’s water supply. (2) After this crisis, a water plant opened near the city in 2009, which became one of the largest ones in Europe, and provides 200 million liters of water per day. This became the solution to Barcelona’s water shortage.
Another article, Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City, further explains the climate change implications for water availability in the city of Barcelona. Barcelona depends highly on both the Ter and Llobregat rivers and due to rainfall shortages, Catalonia is worried about water scarcity. To assess if there could be a potential drought, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model was developed to “reproduce the water contributions by month that have reached the reservoirs, regarding the accumulated rainfall over each sub-basin, representing the available historical-observed water levels.’’ (3) In order to evaluate future scenarios, the authors calibrated the “input data set using climate projections of rainfall time series data of the project RESCCUE.” (3) In addition, local outputs were taken from nine different climate models and “applied to simulate river basins’ responses to reservoirs’ incoming water volume.” (3)
Both of these articles describe the practical effects of Catalonia’s water trends in the recent decades, as precipitation has significantly decreased and the city of Barcelona has experienced various water shortages, as well as what measures are being taken to address the shortages. On the infrastructure side, Barcelona’s new water facility seems to be a solid solution that will address draught situations for the foreseeable future. When coupled with the new HBV model to forecast drought situations, the greater Catalan region will also benefit from the new data science methods and hopefully policy makers will pay close attention to these forecasts, adapting climate change solutions as necessary. While draught and water shortages play a key role in formulating data science models within Catalonia, so too do fires and anthropogenic warming.
A. REGIONAL TRENDS
The article, Exacerbated Fires in Mediterranean Europe due to Anthropogenic Warming Projected with Non-stationary Climate-fire Models, describes how the warmer and drier conditions are projected to continue in the future, leading to an increase in fires across southern Europe. The author argues that “the higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burning area, running from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios.” (4) The Mediterranean region is one of the areas most strongly affected because “fires frequently burn across this area, causing severe economic and environmental damage, including loss of lives, infrastructures, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and the provisioning of raw materials, with an average of approximately 4500km² burned every year.” (4) One instance was in 2017 during the fire season when many large fires occurred in southern France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Not only do these fires cause damage and destruction but also cause intense droughts and extreme heatwaves in addition to economic, ecological and human losses. The warmer and drier climates not only lead to the burning of forests but also increase fuel flammability, which eventually leads to a larger fire.
An environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research because climate change is having a strong impact on the climate, causing forest fires and leading to deforestation, destruction, and loss of biodiversity. The main sustainable development goal to consider is “to explore the fire response in an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections (RCM) in Mediterranean Europe at 1.5,2, and 3 degrees Celsius of mean global warming.” (4) In terms of datasets used by the author, a study showed that an area that was previously burned by a summer fire was linked to droughts that occurred in the same summer located in sub-regions of the Mediterranean. This correlation “explores the relationship between drought indicators and fires through a statistical model.” (4) A data science method formula was used in order to calculate year-to-year changes in summer fires through the use of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate indicator. The link was: log [BA (i,t)] = 𝛽1 (i) + 𝛽2 (i) x SPEI (i,t) + 𝛽s (i) x T (t) + (i,t). Other data figures represented sensitivity (represented by coefficients 𝛽2) of the burned area to SPEI variations, as well as the “relationship between the long-term average of annual temperature (Ty) versus the sensitivity of the burned area to SPEI (β2) for the different ecoregions.” (4) The pattern being investigated is the fire response in a group of regional climate projections. The scientific question the author seeks to answer is: what area of the Mediterranean burns because of forest fires and does it directly relate to other climate change impacts, such as drought? These questions directly lead to a further analysis of some of the practical effects of warming in the Catalonia region.
B. PRACTICAL EFFECTS
The article, Climate change could tarnish the flavour of cava, study suggests, relates to the harmful impacts of climate change on the flavour of cava, a sparkling wine produced in the region of Catalonia, similar to that of French champagne. Warmer and drier climate conditions could drastically change both Macabeo and Parellada grapes, two varieties of grapes in the Catalonia region most commonly used in cava production, by ripening them at a faster rate. This means that harvesting periods would begin earlier in the year, changing the “flavour, aroma, and overall quality of the cava.” (5) In order to better understand exactly how these grapes are directly affected by temperatures and rainfall, a study was conducted analyzing yield and harvest timings in a Catalonian vineyard between 1998 and 2012. With this data, the author designed a mathematical model to imitate how these two types of grapes are expected to turn out with the effects of climate change. Similarly to what the previous article states, “Catalonia is expected to see higher temperatures and less rainfall through this century”, and in comparison to the average temperatures that were previously observed during the study period, those temperatures throughout the course of the grape growing season could increase by up to 3.2 degrees Celsius by the year 2070. (5) The study has also shown that the combination of high temperatures and drier climates are expected to minimize the quantity of water available in the vineyards. The article also points out that there is a shortage of water along the Mediterranean “when moisture is lost from the land through the process of evapotranspiration.” (5) This usually occurs during the dryer summers and climate change could eventually lead to a rise in these water deficiencies from 30% up to 60%. The rapid temperature and climate change shifts aren’t particularly good for the grapes, as they force them to shift the length at which they’re growing, speeding up each individual phase of their growth cycle. Additionally, if the grapes are exposed to high temperatures, the outcome of the cava could be excessively acidic, sugary and alcoholic. This could in turn have a large negative economic impact on cava production, one of the largest industries in Catalonia.
The dimension of human development being addressed by the authors’ research is environmental because it is related to how recent climate change growth has tarnished the flavour of cava through the combination of warming temperatures and drier conditions. But two additional dimensions are also present: economic and social. The sustainable development goal for this article would be to reverse the devastating effects that climate change has on the grapes that go into cava production. In terms of datasets, charts are made in order to “illustrate how climate change could shorten the periods of first budding, ripening, harvesting and the overall growing season of Chardonnay, Macabeo and Parellada grape varieties.” (5) Scientists are investigating the pattern of how warm temperatures and dry conditions affect the ripening, harvest, shift in the growing season and overall flavour of the wine. The scientific question the authors are seeking to answer is how to prevent the grapes from being so powerfully impacted by climate change. Just as draught and warming are playing a major role in formulating models and policies to help mitigate the effects of climate change, so too does modelling of Catalonia’s oceanographic and coastal areas—the third main area reviewed in the literature.
A. REGIONAL TRENDS
This article, Forty-five Years of Oceanographic and Meteorological Observations at a Coastal Station in the NW Mediterranean: A Ground Truth for Satellite Observations, measures the air temperature and sea surface temperature in L’Estartit (a small town on the north-eastern coast of Catalonia) over many years. Local precipitation is trending downward, meaning that it has been raining less, and sea level temperatures are trending upward, or getting warmer. In fact, for every ten years, the sea level is rising three centimeters and sea levels are expected to rise one foot every 100 years. (6)
An environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research as climate change is the main factor in causing erosion along the coast. The development goal that can be considered in relation to this article is the analysis of the sea-level rise and temperature increase. One solution would be to not rake the beach so often, preventing erosion from occurring. According to the article, “during the last years, the dataset has been used in many scientific papers related to climate research and to document extreme events such as cold or heatwaves, storms and their consequences on neritic ecosystems.” (6) Robust estimates of annual trends of sea temperature from SST (0.03 °C/year), S80T (0.02 °C/year), AT (0.05 °C/year) and sea level (3.1 mm/year) are presented.” (6) Two graphs in particular (“a” and “b”) illustrate climate satellites that focus on sea surface temperature (heat) and both serve to cross-check the data set of the other. Graph “b” is a close-up of graph “a” from March 2016 to December 2018 and to pinpoint this data, the authors use “multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution (MUR) analysis from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.” (6) In terms of data science methods, various satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) analysis data sets were utilized to compare statistics from previous years. The authors are investigating the pattern of which sea levels rise and coastal flooding carries sand along the coast. How these patterns occurred from the start and how they can be prevented offshore L’Estartit is the scientific question the authors are seeking to answer, which leads to a direct analysis of the literature on management of coastal environments in Catalonia.
B. MANAGEMENT OF COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS
In Managing Coastal Environments under Climate Change: Pathways to Adaptation, coastlines in Ireland, Spain and Romania are analyzed. The Spanish coastline is approximately 7900km long and according to the article, “50% consists of hard and soft cliffs (especially present at the Atlantic border) and about 25% consists of sandy beaches.” (7) Furthermore, the Catalan coast is around 800km long, located along the Spanish Mediterranean. The north is mostly composed of cliffs (about 280km long) and the south consists of low-lying beaches. The central region is shaped around the metropolitan area of Barcelona and includes various marinas and urban settlements. As stated in this article “urban sandy beaches are typically bounded in their backside by a seafront promenade and infrastructures like streets, roads, railways and houses.” (7) In the last years, the maintenance and development of promenades have been one of the major investments undertaken by the Spanish government, with more than EUR 50 million only in Catalonia during the last two decades.” (7) A study was conducted to compare the erosion and shoreline changes of beaches from 1995-2004. It showed that “more than 70% of Catalan beaches eroded, with average rates of about −2.1 m/yr and of about −3.3 m/yr when the Ebro delta is considered. (7) The authors compare low and high sustainability practices, describing what one should and should not do. In the low sustainability practices, local politicians and environmentalists don’t try to prevent climate change but rather jump straight to the solution as actions are taken after the impact (e.g. beach erosion). An example of this is the Maresme coastal stretch in the Central part of the Catalan coast. This area is where eroding beaches and locally accretive beaches are mostly found due to a net littoral current drift from north to south and the interruption of that drift by various marinas along the coast, resulting in narrower beaches (more erosion) the further south one travels along the Catalan coastline. This coastal area faces the most energetic wave events from the East, resulting in no sand replacement on the beach once it’s washed away because of the infrastructure (i.e., buildings, apartments, roads, railways) directly abutting the beach. To prevent further erosion, and without a comprehensive plan in place for the entire coastline, local authorities have undertaken the construction of riprap revetments to defend certain beach areas. In addition to the building of more marinas, construction behind the beach (e.g., streets, houses, buildings) has formed a barrier, causing less sand to wash down from hilly areas during heavy rainfalls to replenish beach sand and also interrupting the north-south movement of the current and sediment. One comprehensive policy solution to prevent beach erosion under these circumstances would be to limit the construction of new marinas, prevent new construction along the coastline that “breaks” the natural flow of sand from hilly areas to the shore, and also construct an ephemeral small dune of 1.5 m to prevent additional beach erosion.” (7) This dune would also serve as a sediment buffer to naturally incorporate more sand onto the beach over a period of time. Potential long-term downsides of the dune pointed out by the authors is that it will eventually collapse because of sea level rise as a response to climate change. The policy solution would also incorporate incremental interventions with regular monitoring and local community involvement. (7)
According to Erosion consequences on beach functions along the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), “the main aim is to present a methodology to analyze erosion consequences at a regional scale, considering the implications of processes acting at different timescales affecting coastal functions.” (8) The article, consistent with other literature on the subject, argues that southern municipalities are more likely to suffer from erosion “affecting the protection function of the beach and leisure use by the local population, whereas erosion will have a greater effect on foreign tourism in the northern municipalities.” (8) The results of these studies underline the need to apply “an articulated erosion risk assessment focusing on specific targets depending on the site in question.” (8) In a more structured and long-lasting approach, this procedure can further help coastal managers to acquire measured actions to deal with the impacts of erosion. Because there are larger population concentrations and developing human activities are more attracted to these areas, coastal zones are among one of the most highly threatened areas which “increases the potential effects of damage by natural and human-induced hazards.” (8) According to the authors, “beach erosion not only poses a risk to existing assets, but also causes a significant setback to recreation and tourism and, consequently, threatens one of the most important sources of the economy in coastal regions.” (8) To help solve this issue, the article develops a “methodology to assess coastal erosion impacts at different timescales and at regional scale which has been framed within the SPRC model (Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence model), where consequences are determined in accordance with coastal characteristics and management interests.” (8) The data analyzed in this area demonstrates “the need to include specific indicators for tourism and leisure”, which “permit the proper reflection of regional differences in tourism development, while the use of beaches is equally important along the region.” (8) Lastly, the authors argue that “by considering multiple erosion components, beach functions, and socio-economic values, it is possible to manage erosion to accomplish more specific goals, in a more efficient and sustainable manner.” (8)
Dealing with the effects of climate change in Catalonia has not been easy for local municipalities or the regional government. Through a critical analysis of the literature relating to climate change in three main areas—inland water resources, fires and anthropogenic warming, and oceanographic and coastal areas—we see that each presents a unique challenge and, consequently, each requires a unique solution. In one case (inland water resources) the challenge involves more of an environmental and economic approach, while in the others (fires/anthropogenic warming and oceanographic/coastal areas) a multifactor approach dealing with the social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change must be addressed simultaneously to overcome the problems at hand.
No matter which data set or data science method one looks at across the literature, one overarching theme presents itself: In order to overcome the effects of climate change, an integrated, long-term and adaptive policy framework is required at the level of regional government in close cooperation with local municipalities, informed by robust and predictive modelling with incremental interventions ready to be undertaken. As tourism is extremely important to the regional economy in Catalonia (Barcelona having the largest cruise ship port in the Mediterranean and one of the busiest airports in Europe), this begs the important question: Why is there no research on the effects of tourism on climate change in Catalonia? Even though regional and local politicians might not like the outcome of these studies, this gap in the literature needs to be addressed immediately and constitutes an important focus for future research.
(1) Diana Pascual, Eduard Pla, Joan A. Lopez-Bustins, Javier Retana & Jaume Terradas (2015) Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia, Spain, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60:12, 2132-2147, DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.947290
(2) Kayla Ritter. “A Decade after Barcelona’s Water Emergency, Drought Still Stalks Spain.” Circle of Blue, June 10, 2019. https://www.circleofblue.org/2018/europe/a-decade-after-barcelonas-water-emergency-drought-still-stalks-spain/.
(3) Forero-Ortiz, Edwar, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Robert Monjo. “Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City.” MDPI. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, February 27, 2020. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/5/1779/htm.
(4) Turco, M., Rosa-Cánovas, J.J., Bedia, J. et al. Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models. Nat Commun 9, 3821 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z.
(5) Daisy Dunne. “Climate change could tarnish the flavour of cava, study suggests” August 23, 2017.
(6) Alan Buis, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Forty-five years of oceanographic and meteorological observations at a coastal station in the NW Mediterranean: a ground truth for satellite observations” June 23, 2020.
(7) Sánchez-Arcilla, A., et al., Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation, Sci Total Environ (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.124
(8) Ballesteros, C., Jiménez, J.A., Valdemoro, H.I. et al. Erosion consequences on beach functions along the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain). Nat Hazards 90, 173–195 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3038-5