Evolving Solutions: Human Development/Data Science
Miriam Burch
27 September 2021
Word count: 2,253
Source: Diana Pascual, Eduard Pla, Joan A. Lopez-Bustins, Javier Retana & Jaume Terradas (2015) Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia, Spain, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60:12, 2132-2147, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.947290
Annotations: This case study describes the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin. It begins by describing the three medium-sized study catchments, Fluvià, Tordera and Siurana all located within northeastern Spain. Humanity is currently facing the most important environmental threat in history: global climate change. Temperature and precipitation patterns are directly impacted by climate change and these trends and thereby impact the availability of water and streamflows locally. Population growth and land-use changes are projected to increase water consumption. In fact, according to this article, the Mediterranean region is recognized as being among the most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Forecasts indicate that the Mediterranean area will see less precipitation, especially during the warmest months of the year, and a higher mean and maximal temperature during that time. Recent trends in the Mediterranean show a warming trend higher than global temperature increases of nearly 1 degree Celsius over the last century and a change in seasonal rainfall patterns. According to recent climate models, the region will experience a drier, warmer climate by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the region is experiencing significant changes in land cover that are disturbing its water sources, mostly due to an increase in vegetation (forests and shrublands), irrigation coverage and human needs for water. Because of this, over the forthcoming decades, water availability is expected to decrease significantly. Drought frequency has occurred more frequently in the Mediterranean since 1970, which has caused high economic damages for the last two decades, as demonstrated by observational series. According to these studies, annual precipitation in the region varies statistically non-significantly from year to year, and spring precipitation decreases significantly. As a result, there has been a general decrease in streamflows because of these processes and a higher occurrence of water shortages associated with urbanization and tourism in Catalonia. According to this article, “The study has three main objectives, focused on its geographic area: (1) to develop a methodology for evaluating climate change effects on modelled water resources at catchment level; (2) to evaluate how climate projections will affect streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET); and (3) to analyse whether the expected reduction of streamflow will compromise the maintenance of ecological streamflows.”
Amartya Sen believes that freedom is the essence of human development and the climate change issues mentioned in this article are directly related to his definition because there’s a restriction of freedom to consume more water. The environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research in this article because climate change is affecting the water resources available in the Mediterranean Basin. Based on the results of the study, water managers can identify major impacts of climate change on water resources at the regional and local levels. In order to face climate change threats, this impact identification and quantification is vital and in order to come up with a solution, the analyses proven in this article needs to be incorporated into adaptive management along the Mediterranean coast. In terms of geospatial datasets, three catchments are selected in Catalonia (Fluvià, Tordera, and Siurana) and they are graphed in location and mean annual precipitation (in mm) for the 1951-2000 period. A SWAT model was used to evaluate water resources based on climate, topography, land use, and soil type. This model was then calibrated and validated at a daily time step with historical streamflow, reservoir levels, and reservoir management information in the Siurana catchment every 3 years over a period starting in 1984 and ending in 2008. The hydrological cycle is being used as a scientific method in the three catchments, each under different climate change scenarios. According to the article, “The process includes three main steps: (1) setting-up the hydrological model for the historical period (1984–2008) with observed streamflow and climate data; (2) generating climate projections based on the dynamic downscaling performed by the SMC, starting from the atmosphere-ocean coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM for A2 (medium-high greenhouse gas emissions) and B1 (medium-low emissions) IPCC scenarios; and (3) incorporating climate scenarios into the hydrological model to evaluate streamflow and evapotranspiration changes in the short term (2006–2030) and long term (2076–2100).” The pattern investigated is the precipitation and temperature within each watershed. Lastly, how climate change is affecting the availability of water in the Mediterranean region is the main scientific question in this article.
Source: Daisy Dunne. “Climate change could tarnish the flavour of cava, study suggests” August 23, 2017
Annotations: This article relates to the harmful impacts of climate change on the flavour of cava, a sparkling wine produced in the region of Catalonia, similar to that of French champagne. Warmer and drier climate conditions could drastically change both Macabeo and Parellada grapes, two varieties of grapes in the Catalonia region most commonly used in cava production, by ripening them at a faster rate. This means that harvesting periods would begin earlier in the year, changing the “flavour, aroma, and overall quality of the cava.” In order to better understand exactly how these grapes are directly affected by temperatures and rainfall, a study was conducted analyzing yield and harvest timings in a Catalonian vineyard between 1998 and 2012. With this data, the author designed a mathematical model to imitate how these two types of grapes are expected to turn out with the effects of climate change. Similarly to what the previous article states, “Catalonia is expected to see higher temperatures and less rainfall through this century”, and in comparison to the average temperatures that were previously observed during the study period, those temperatures throughout the course of the grape growing season could increase by up to 3.2 degrees Celsius by the year 2070. The study has also shown that the combination of high temperatures and drier climates are expected to minimize the quantity of water available in the vineyards. The article also points out that there is a shortage of water along the Mediterranean, meaning that “when moisture is lost from the land through the process of evapotranspiration.” This usually occurs during the dryer summers and climate change could eventually lead to a rise in these water deficiencies from 30% up to 60%. The rapid temperature and climate change shifts aren’t particularly good for the grapes, as they force them to shift the length at which they’re growing, speeding up each individual phase of their growth cycle. Additionally, if the grapes are exposed to high temperatures, the outcome of the cava could be excessively acidic, sugary and alcoholic.
This article relates to Amartya Sen’s definition of human development because it’s restricting farmers to grow the grapes that they want and need to grow because they have to start harvesting earlier in the season since the summers are becoming drier. This means that farmers are now forced to harvest over fewer days in a narrower window earlier in the year, for example in August instead of September (when they usually begin). The dimension of human development being addressed by the authors’ research is environmental because it is related to how recent climate change growth has tarnished the flavour of cava through the combination of warming temperatures and drier conditions. The sustainable development goal for this article would be to reverse the devastating effects that climate change has on the grapes producing cava. In terms of datasets, charts are made in order to “illustrate how climate change could shorten the periods of first budding, ripening, harvesting and the overall growing season of Chardonnay, Macabeo and Parellada grape varieties.” Scientists are investigating the pattern of how warm temperatures and dry conditions affect the ripening, harvest, shift in the growing season and overall flavour of the wine. The scientific question the authors are seeking to answer is how to prevent the grapes from being so powerfully impacted by climate change.
Source: Turco, M., Rosa-Cánovas, J.J., Bedia, J. et al. Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models. Nat Commun 9, 3821 (2018)
Annotations: This article describes how the warmer and drier conditions have projected to continue in the future, leading to an increase in fires across southern Europe. The author argues that “the higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burning area, running from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios.” The Mediterranean region is one of the areas most strongly affected because according to the article, “fires frequently burn across this area, causing severe economic and environmental damage, including loss of lives, infrastructures, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and the provisioning of raw materials, with an average of approximately 4500km² burned every year.” One instance was in 2017 during the fire season when many large fires occurred in southern France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Not only do these fires cause damage and destruction but also cause intense droughts and extreme heatwaves in addition to economic, ecological and human losses. The article also states that warmer and drier climates not only lead to the burning of forests but also increase fuel flammability, which eventually leads to a larger fire.
This article relates to Amartya Sen’s definition of human development because it restricts the freedom of movement, meaning that if one lives in an area that is affected by a forest fire, they no longer have access to that location because it will be closed off due to the danger of the fires. The entire road could be blocked off, not allowing one to pass, which is a restriction of one’s freedom. An environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research because climate change is having a strong impact on the climate, causing forest fires and leading to deforestation, destruction, loss of biodiversity, etc. The main sustainable development goal to consider, according to this article, is “to explore the fire response in an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections (RCM) in Mediterranean Europe at 1.5,2, and 3 degrees Celcius of mean global warming.” In terms of datasets used by the author, a study showed that an area that was previously burned by a summer fire was linked to droughts that occurred in the same summer located in sub-regions of the Mediterranean. This correlation “explores the relationship between drought indicators and fires through a statistical model.” A data science method formula was used in order to calculate year-to-year changes in summer fires through the use of standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate indicator. The link was: log [BA (i,t)] = 𝛽1 (i) + 𝛽2 (i) x SPEI (i,t) + 𝛽s (i) x T (t) + (i,t) Other data figures represented sensitivity (represented by coefficients 𝛽2) of burned area to SPEI variations, as well as the “relationship between the long-term average of annual temperature (Ty) versus the sensitivity of the burned area to SPEI (β2) for the different eco-regions.” The pattern being investigated in this article is the fire response in a group of regional climate projections. The scientific question the author is seeking to answer is: what area of the Mediterranean burns because of forest fires and does it directly relate to other climate change impacts, such as drought?
Source: Alan Buis, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Forty-five years of oceanographic and meteorological observations at a coastal station in the NW Mediterranean: a ground truth for satellite observations” June 23, 2020
Annotations: This article measures the air temperature and sea surface temperature in L’Estartit (a small town on the north-eastern coast of Spain) over many years. Local precipitation is going down, meaning that it has been raining less and sea level temperatures are goig up at a warming trend. In fact, for every 10 years, the sea level is rising 3 centimeters and sea levels are expected to rise 1 foot every 100 years.
This article relates to Amartya Sen’s definition of human development because climate change restricts the freedom of everyone living along the Mediterranean coast. Due to erosion and sea level rises, one no longer has access to the beach, which is a large restriction of freedom if one owns property near or on the beach. Another limitation is that of economic freedom, as the impacts of climate change restrict economic development, meaning that one can’t build along the coast due to sea levels rising. These effects also restrict the movement of tourism and decrease the fishing population, limiting the number of fish fishermen can catch and prevent overfishing to compensate for climate change. An environmental dimension of human development is being addressed by the authors’ research as climate change is the main factor in causing erosion along the coast. The development goal that can be considered in relation to this article is the analysis of sea level rise and temperature increase. One solution would be to not rake the beach so often, as this would prevent erosion from occuring. According to the article, “during the last years, the dataset has been used in many scientific papers related to climate research and to document extreme events such as cold or heat waves, storms and their consequences on neritic ecosystems. Robust estimates of annual trends of sea temperature from SST (0.03 °C/year), S80T (0.02 °C/year), AT (0.05 °C/year) and sea level (3.1 mm/year) are presented.” Two graphs in specific (one being “a” and another “b”) illustrate climate satellite that focus on sea surface temperature (heat) and both are different ways to confirm data. Graph “b” is a close up of graph “a” from March 2016 to December 2018 and to pin-point this data, they use “multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution (MUR) analysis from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.” In terms of data science methods, various satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) analysis data sets were utilized to compare statistics from previous years. The authors are investigating the pattern of which sea levels rise and coastal flooding carries sand along the coast. How these patterns occured from the start and how they can be prevented offshore L’Estartit are the scientific questions the authors are seeking to answer.